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How to Estimate Monthly Sales on Amazon?

Estimate Monthly Sales on Amazon
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Are you an online arbitrage seller constantly grappling with the question of how to estimate your monthly sales? If so, you're not alone. Many OA sellers find themselves overwhelmed by the multitude of tools, methods, and formulas available, leading to confusion and frustration.
Understanding and predicting your monthly sales on Amazon is crucial for making informed decisions about your inventory and avoiding tied-up capital. This can seem like a daunting task, but fear not! In this guide, we will simplify the process of estimating monthly sales on Amazon.
Keep reading to find out how you can estimate your monthly sales to grow your business and source the right number of products.

Why is it Important to Estimate Monthly Sales on Amazon?

Amazon sellers need a product that is in high demand and can be sold quickly.

Amazon sellers – especially those who use the online/retail arbitrage model – need a product that is in high demand and can be sold quickly. Monthly sales is the best metric that shows how trendy and in-demand the product is. It can help Amazon sellers find fast-moving products that sell quickly so they can acquire new inventory with their profit. 

 Estimating monthly sales helps OA sellers determine whether they want to work with a specific product. And if they do, how many units of it they should order, and how much they should have in stock. Additionally, monthly sales affect the cash flow in online arbitrage. Low monthly sales mean the cycle that starts with ordering a product and ends with receiving the payment from Amazon will take longer to complete. So, if the seller wants more units in stock, they should have a bigger cash flow. In contrast, high monthly sales and a fast-selling product can allow sellers to sell the same number of units with a smaller cash flow.

How Do Amazon’s Monthly Sales Estimators Work?

It’s important to note that regardless of which technique you use to estimate monthly sales for a product, it is just an estimation. While Amazon’s API system releases data about BSR, number of reviews, number of competitors and more, it keeps the data about monthly sales to itself, so we can’t be sure about the exact number of monthly sales. However, the company did release some data a few years back, and some companies have taken this data and used it to generate a formula to estimate monthly sales. 

Since these companies use different formulas, their estimations may differ slightly. For example, if you try to get an estimation on a specific product’s monthly sales using Tactical Arbitrage and Helium 10, the former will make a much lower estimation than the latter.

How to Estimate Monthly Sales on Amazon?

Having a systematic approach and leveraging reliable data can help you estimate monthly sales on Amazon. There are various ways to do this, but here are the most effective:

Estimating monthly sales can help you make informed business decisions about inventory planning

Use Amazon’s Best Seller Rank

Amazon’s Best Seller Rank (BSR) is a metric that shows how well a product is selling in its category, and monthly sales comes from BSR. Experienced sellers usually use this metric to estimate monthly sales, and they know how fast-selling a product is according to its BSR in a specific category – for example, a BSR of 10000 in Toys & Games category or 150000 in Home & Kitchen. 

You can’t estimate the exact number of monthly sales using BSR, but you can qualitatively determine how fast-selling and popular a product is. However, note that working directly with BSR is difficult and requires experience, so it may not be the easiest method.

Using Keepa Chart Drops

Keepa charts offer insights into a product’s sales performance over time, allowing you to make more informed decisions. For this method, you have to check out the product’s sales rank graph, and look for sudden drops. Every time the graph goes down, the product has made at least one sale. We say at least one sale because we can’t know the maximum number – maybe the product simultaneously sold more than 1 in one drop. 

An easier way to count BSR drops using keepa is by clicking on the Statistic tab under the chart. In the window that opens, check out the last number under Sales Rank to find out how many drops there were in a 90-day period. For example, in the image below, the product has had 74 drops, which means its sells at least 74 units per month.

However, note that this method can’t work with faster-selling products like the example above, because the number won’t be very accurate since Amazon doesnt update the BSR every second. The product in the image above has a sales rank of 1, so we know it sells a lot, and therefore we can’t rely on the drops alone.

This main advantage of this method is that it provides a definitive minimum number instead of an estimation. So, it is best to use it to make sure about minimum sales of an item.

Use Tools and Software

The easiest and most popular method of estimating monthly sales among OA sellers in using tools and software. The biggest advantage of this method is you easily get an estimation in no time. However, it also has disadvantages – the estimation may not be accurate, and most of these tools don’t offer their services for free. 

How Accurate Are Amazon Sales Estimator Tools?

You shouldn’t count on these tools being too accurate, but this doesn’t mean they’re not useful. Since each of these tools are modeled and tuned in a different way, they provide different results. The important thing is that after a while of working with one of these tools, you’ll know what counts as a high or low sales rank.  

In addition, sales estimators may have different levels of accuracy in various categories. For example, one tool might be very accurate when estimating monthly sales of a product in the Toys & Games category, while not giving an accurate estimation of another product in Health & Household. Again, it’s best to work with these tools for a while so you can find out how many sales are considered profitable for each category. Based on this, you can limit yourself to selling categories and products that are profitable for you.

Best Tools for Estimating Monthly Sales on Amazon

Navigating through the maze of various tools and methods available can be overwhelming, leaving sellers confused and unsure about which tools to trust. OA sellers need a reliable and effective tool that simplifies the process of estimating monthly sales. Here are some of the best tools that do this:

1. AZInsight 

AZInsight from asinzen uses a special technology called ScoutOracle for estimating monthly sales. They also provide sales estimates for variations of a product using historical and current data. 

  • Subscription Fee: $7.95 per month ($59.95 per year) for Starter plan, $19.95 per month ($149.95 per year) for Advanced plan

2. Seller App

Seller App’s Sales Estimator tool is a valuable resource designed specifically for Amazon sellers. By inputting relevant product details such as category, price, and sales rank, sellers can obtain an approximation of the sales performance of a particular product.

  • Subscription Fee: $49 per month for PRO LITE plan, $99 per month for PROFESSIONAL plan 

3. ASINspector

ASINspector offers a sales estimator tool that provides valuable insights into the estimated monthly sales of products. By inputting the ASIN or product details, sellers can obtain an estimation of the instant, daily, and monthly sales of a specific product.

  • Subscription Fee: all payments are one-time – $97 for Standard plan, $187 for PRO+ plan

4. Helium 10

Helium 10 is an all-in-one suite of tools for Amazon sellers that includes a powerful sales estimator tool called Xray. This tool provides accurate estimates of monthly sales and other important metrics such as revenue and profit margins.

  • Subscription Fee: $229 per month for Diamond plan, $79 per month for Platinum plan, and $29 per month for Starter plan

5. Viral Launch

Viral Launch is a comprehensive suite of tools for Amazon sellers that includes a powerful sales estimator tool called Market Intelligence. This tool provides accurate estimates of monthly sales and other important metrics such as revenue and profit margins.

  • Subscription Fee: $69 per month for Essentials plan, $99 per month for Pro plan, $199 per month for Pro Plus Ads plan 

6. Jungle Scout

Jungle Scout is a popular tool among Amazon sellers that provides accurate estimates of monthly sales for any product on Amazon. It also offers other features such as product research, keyword research, and competitor analysis.

  • Subscription Fee: $69 per month for Monthly Suite plan, $189 for Start-up Suite (3-month) plan, $349 for Entrepreneur Suite (6-month) plan

7. AMZScout

AMZScout is another popular tool for estimating monthly sales on Amazon. It offers a range of features such as product research, keyword research, and competitor analysis.

  • Subscription Fee: $172.88 per month for the monthly plan, $651.88 per year (PRO Extension) or $1,084 (Seller’s Bundle for Amazon) per year for the annual plans – also offers lifetime plans 

8. Unicorn Smasher

Unicorn Smasher is a free Chrome extension that provides accurate estimates of monthly sales for any product on Amazon. It also offers other features such as product research, keyword research, and competitor analysis.Subscription Fee: all plans are lifetime – $49.99 for Basic plan, $159 for Suite plan, $99 for Professional plan

How to Use Estimator Tools for Different Variations of an ASIN?

There are many estimator tools available for Amazon sellers, but not all of them are suitable for estimating sales and revenue for different variations of an ASIN.

An ASIN is a unique identifier assigned by Amazon to each product listed on their platform. However, some products may have multiple variations or options, such as size or color. Each variation will have its own unique ASIN. 

There are several ways to estimate sales for each variation of an ASIN: 

  • Using ReviewMeta and Jungle Scout: Go to reviewmeta.com and paste the product’s URL in the search bar. It pulls up the listing, filters out fake reviews, and shows how many reviews each variation is getting. 

Add the number of reviews for each variation together and divide it by the number of reviews for the variation that’s getting the most reviews. Take the result and multiply it by the estimated monthly sales provided by Jungle Scout to get a rough estimation of how many units of that specific variation is selling.

  • Using Seller Amp: If you have already installed Seller Amp, go to the product listing and select the Variations tab of Seller Amp and click on the Check button. You will see a pie chart showing the review percentage for each variation. Take the review percentage and multiply it by the total estimated sales. 
  • Using Keepa: If you have already installed Keepa, go to its Variations tab and filter the results by the number of ratings. Multiply the percent of ratings for each variation by the total estimated sales to find out how many units of that variation is selling. 

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, it can be challenging to estimate monthly sales on Amazon but using the right tools can make it much easier to get accurate data quickly. This way, you can make informed decisions about your business strategy moving forward!

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